Tropical Storm MUIFA Advisory Tue Apr 25

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 256 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AS IT
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON LOW
REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURES IN THE 250927Z 91GHZ SSMIS AND THE
251004Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SSTS NEAR 29 CELSIUS,
AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LAYER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 03W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTERWARD, IT WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK
NORTHWARD THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE.
INCREASED OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WILL PROMOTE
MODERATE INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 45 KNOTS BEFORE INCREASED VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES RAPIDLY ERODE, THEN
DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING AN OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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